Point of divergence
What happened (actual)
Formal decoupling framework enacted; WTO disputes escalate
Counterfactual branch
Significance 10/10 — higher marks events that structurally reshape the scenario, not mere headlines.
foresightmediumGlobal
If US–China Trade Fully Decouples by 2028
Comprehensive trade and technology decoupling
Divergence · January 1, 2028
Timeline comparison
Use the scrubber to walk through the fork. Each marker shows what historians document versus what plausibly changes—with evidence notes, not alternate-reality fiction.
Comprehensive trade and technology decoupling
Fork date · January 1, 2028 · Select any marker below to inspect evidence and mechanisms.
Fork
202820282045
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Full chronology